MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252201Z - 252330Z
   
   PORTIONS OF SERN VA SWD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT AND POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
   THE APPALACHIANS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OH VALLEY
   REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CONTRIBUTING
   TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE
   UPPER 60S...AND THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED
   INTO THE EVENING. WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION...COMBINED WITH WARM/FAVORABLY MOIST LOW
   LEVEL AIRMASS...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITHIN
   WEAKLY CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW REGIME...POSSIBLY AIDED BY BROAD
   REGION OF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT. 
   
   VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION PER WV
   IMAGERY...WHICH MAY HINDER MORE RAPID/WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW SUSTAINED
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EVOLVE/STRENGTHEN WITHIN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND
   SHEAR PROFILES PER CAE VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUPERCELL
   STORM STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING A RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/25/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   34178100 35977889 36897655 36037607 34677721 33437939
               33328082 34178100