Mesoscale Data
Forecasters at RAH routinely use the
SPC meso-analysis products during
severe weather operations. During this event, the SPC meso-analysis products
were consulted frequently to monitor the evolving environment, anticipate the
growing tornado threat, and locate the region of greatest threat. The images and discussion below
highlight several of the SPC meso-analysis products that provide insight into the
evolution of the severe weather event. These images are not only used in real time but they are archived locally
for use in post event analysis and training.
Analyzed surface temperatures (red), dew points (blue) and shaded, and wind barbs from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
The analysis shows one surface boundary which extends westward near the 60 degree isodrosotherm (dew point contour) from near Cape Hatteras to near
Greenville to near Raleigh to near Charlotte. Temperatures south of the boundary reached the mid 60s
to near 70 degrees and were supportive of surface based convection. South of this boundary, a smaller and more subtle boundary developed in
the Southern Coastal Plain.
500 MB heights, temperatures (red), dew points (green), and wind barbs (black) from SPC at 03Z on Saturday, May 10, 2008
The analysis shows an approaching short wave trough across far southwestern North Carolina and
southwestern South Carolina with a pronounced wind shift to westerly from southwesterly. Note the large area of
winds in excess of 50 kts across the Carolinas.
Analyzed mixed layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) (red) and mixed layer based convective inhibition (MLCIN) (blue lines - shaded)
from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
MLCAPE values were very limited with maximum values just exceeding 250 J/kg across the Sandhills and Southern
Coastal Plain of North Carolina. There was little if any convective inhibition (CIN) across the same region.
At the same time, the most unstable CAPE and the
surface based CAPE were larger but only around
500 J/kg.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
3 hour analysis of mixed layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) change from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
Note the limited but still noteworthy decrease in stability across the Sandhills and Southern
Coastal Plain of North Carolina.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
0-6 km Bulk Shear (blue) and storm motion (brown) from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
The 0-6 km bulk shear values range between 50-60 knots across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Given sufficient instability,
thunderstorms tend to become more organized and persistent as vertical shear increases.
Supercells are commonly associated with vertical shear values of 35-40 knots and
the analysis at 21 UTC supports the potential of supercells.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) (shown in blue) and storm motion (brown) from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
Note that the 0-1 km SRH values range between 100 and 150 m²/s² across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of North Carolina. The
SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells. Studies have shown
that larger values of 0-1 km SRH, greater than 100 m²2/s², suggests an increased threat of tornadoes and that very
large values of 0-1 km SRH (perhaps greater than 200 to 300 m²/s²) are indicative of significant tornado potential.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) (shown in blue) and storm motion (brown) from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
Note that the 0-3 Km SRH values range around 200 m²/s² across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of North Carolina. The
SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells. Larger values of 0-3 km SRH
(greater than 100 m²/s²) suggest an increased threat of supercells and tornadoes. Some studies suggest that the 0-3 km SRH
is a better indicator of storm rotation, which is related to tornadoes, but not directly the potential for tornadoes themselves.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
Analyzed Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) (fixed layer) and the mixed layer
convective inhibition (MLCIN) from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
The STP is designed to highlight areas favoring right-moving tornadic supercells.
The STP is a multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective bulk wind difference (EBWD),
effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH), 100-mb mean parcel CAPE (MLCAPE), 100-mb mean parcel
CIN (MLCIN), and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (MLLCL).
The modified STP formulation is as follows:
STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1500 m) * (SRH1/100 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1) * ((200+sbCIN)/150 J kg-1)
Analyzed values across central and eastern North Carolina were less then 0.5. The limiting factor
which resulted in a reduced STP likely was the
sbCAPE which was analyzed at the time to be around 500 J kg-1 or less
while
the mlLCL was around 500 m,
the SRH1 was around 100 m2 s-2, and
the sbCIN was near zero.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
Analyzed Lifting Condensation Level (red, blue, and green) from SPC at 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009
The LCL height is the height at which a parcel becomes saturated when lifted dry adiabatically.
The importance of LCL height is thought to relate to sub-cloud evaporation and the potential
for outflow dominance. Low LCL heights imply less evaporational cooling from precipitation
and less potential for a strong outflow that would likely inhibit low-level mesocyclone development.
Thunderstorms that produce significant tornadoes generally have a lower LCL height with LCL heights
less than 1,000 meters typically favorable for tornado development. The LCL values during this
event in the areas where tornadoes occurred ranged from between 500 to 750 meters.
(Click on the image below to enlarge)
NWS composite radar reflectivity imagery from 21 UTC on Friday, March 27, 2009.
The composite reflectivity imagery is from the approximate time in which the analysis imagery above is valid.
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