FXUS10 KWNH 180319
PMDHMD
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1018 PM EST THU JAN 17 2008
 
VALID JAN 18/0000 UTC THRU JAN 21/1200 UTC
 
MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS
WITH THE 00Z NAM THAT IMPACTS THE UPCOMING FORECAST.


MODEL TRENDS...

...MODEL TRENDS GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...  

...SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH FEAT THREE STREAMS IMPACTING THE ERN
2/3 OF THE US...
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MEXICO WILL FEATURE THREE SEPARATE STREAMS AND WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE 00Z NAM IS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURE
AND OPEN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MEXICO ON FRI
BEFORE SHEARING OUT ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH ON
SAT. HOWEVER... THE NRN BRANCH AND ARCTIC JET ARE BOTH TRENDING
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY
AND DYNAMICS ARRIVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY SAT MORNING.
FROM SAT THROUGH SUN... THE NAM CONTINUES THE SLOWER TREND WITH
THE BETTER ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH BY 3 TO 6 HRS AND THE 500 MB
VORT MAX IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE TO AR TO THE VA/NC BORDER TO JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
FROM SAT MORNING TO SUN NIGHT. THIS HAS A VERY BIG AFFECT ON THE
SURFACE WAVE AND SUBTROPICAL/GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE ERN GULF FRI... THEN PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM ON SAT. THE
00Z NAM IS SLOWER DEVELOPING THIS SURFACE WAVE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT... MORE SUPPRESSED OR KEEPING THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF
COAST BEFORE TRANSFERRING TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND SLIDING
FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS SHIFTS THE EVER SO
PRESENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE SOUTH AND NEVER REALLY IMPACTING
THE NERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY.  

...NERN PAC UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST...
THE 00Z NAM IS TRENDING EVER SO SLOWLY BY THREE HRS OR LESS ON THE
VIGOROUS NERN PAC SHORT WAVE DIVING THROUGH WRN CANADA INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. THE 00Z NAM IS STILL
INDICATING BY SUN NIGHT... AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST... AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS
INVADING THE REGION AND A SURFACE WAVE DIVING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE INTO ERN CO KICKING UP WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

MUSHER

MODEL BIASES AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$