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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND
HOUSTON SHOW A LOOSE BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NOAA BUOY
42019 INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY... TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED. WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT FOR NOW...WITH A BETTER READ ON
THE INTENSITY EXPECTED WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES IN
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A
LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
DAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT
COULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 28.1N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.6N  95.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.8N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.4N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.7N  91.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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