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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN NC INTO PARTS OF SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 142006Z - 142130Z
   
   AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY REGION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION...ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO...APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT
   ENHANCING SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS TO THE
   LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN
   A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY COMPONENT...NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT. 
   THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK WAVE...SOUTHWEST OF WINSTON
   SALEM...THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MAY SHIFT
   SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
   FEATURE.  A MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL
   IN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  AND...RATHER MODEST
   MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL.  BUT...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
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