MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101715Z - 101815Z
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
   DEVELOPING FROM SERN VA ACROSS ERN NC WHERE STRONG HEATING IS TAKING
   PLACE. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH
   MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH
   LEADING EDGE OF UPPER VORT MAX ENTERING THE PIEDMONT AS OF 17Z.
   SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE
   WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AREAS FARTHER E. INCREASING
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MINOR CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER WAVE WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WNWLY FLOW WILL HELP MOVE STORMS IN A SELY
   DIRECTION TOWARDS THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
   BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL GENERALLY LESS THAN SEVERE CRITERIA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/10/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   33857834 34867959 35887915 36557860 37237765 37577639
   37517579 37387566 35487539 35217547 34597658 33857796