Radar Analysis and Warning Methodology on November 16, 2006
Between midnight and 500 AM Thursday morning, several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued
across central NC. These warnings were generally prompted by bowing line segments in reflectivity
imagery combined with VAD wind profile (VWP), WSR-88D
velocity and local 00Z RAOB data showing 50-55kt winds
5000-10000 ft above ground level (AGL). Since the 0.5 degree elevation scan from KRAX and neighboring
radars overshoots the lowest 5000-10000 ft in the west/northwest piedmont and low-level storm
structure and velocity data cannot be sampled, storm severity was assessed primarily by
recognizing structural characteristics aloft such as rear-inflow notches, bowing line segments
and mid-altitude radial convergence (MARC). Volume products such as composite reflectivity, echo
tops and vertically integrated liquid (VIL) were of limited use in this event because of the weak
thermodynamic environment (very marginal instability), however, these products were helpful at
times with regards to highlighting strengthening convective cells.
At 0710Z, a storm in central Randolph County developed a pronounced
rear-inflow notch in the base reflectivity and began to bow out. A severe thunderstorm
warning was issued for northeast Randolph County and Alamance County in response to this feature.
At 0714Z, base reflectivity and
storm-relative velocity revealed that the northern portion of the bow (directly over the
town of Liberty in NE Randolph County) had developed into a structure like that of a book-end vortex. Damage was reported
with this cell in the town of Liberty in extreme northeast Randolph County.
At 0916Z (416AM), a cell moving northeast into Johnston County
intensified with a 30-40 kg/m2 VIL that persisted through the next several volume scans.
At 0929Z, 50 knot inbound winds on the base velocity at 600
ft AGL prompted a severe thunderstorm warning for NW Johnston and SE Wake counties, valid from
0930Z-1000Z. A spotter reported a 62 mph wind gust with this cell in the town of Clayton in NW
Johnston County at 0950Z. In this case, because the cell traveled directly toward and over the
radar, low-level storm structure and velocities were well-sampled, leading to higher confidence
that severe weather would occur.
At 1100Z, a supercell thunderstorm moved onshore into Brunswick County in extreme southeastern NC. This cell
continued to intensify as it moved inland into an environment with higher helicity. The storm
subsequently moved north through Columbus County where it spawned
an F3 tornado, killing 8 people and injuring 20 others. This supercell continued north into
Pender and Duplin counties by 1200Z. Tornado warnings were issued by NWS Wilmington and NWS
Newport for Columbus, Pender and Duplin counties. With a history of producing a killer tornado
and an impressive, sustained low-level rotation observed from
KRAX, KLTX and
KMHX as the storm continued moving north, a tornado
warning was issued by NWS Raleigh for Wayne County at 1234Z (734AM). This warning was issued
while the storm was near Kenansville in central Duplin County, allowing 16 minutes lead time
before the strong circulation even reached the Duplin/Wayne County border. The storm continued
to show strong rotation as it moved NNE through eastern Wayne
County, exiting into extreme western Greene County and southern Wilson County by 1315Z
(815AM). A tornado warning was also issued for Wilson County as the storm continued north but the
the circulation soon fell apart and the storm weakened shortly thereafter. Amazingly, no
damage was reported with this storm as it crossed Wayne County.
By 1330Z, the remnants of the supercell that produced the Columbus County tornado were in
Wilson County and another distinct line of heavy showers had developed ahead of the cold front
across central North Carolina. At 1330Z, the line of heavy showers
extended from Columbus County north through Cumberland County into Wake County. Individual
cells within the line were moving to the N/NNE at 50-60 mph while the whole line slowly moved east
towards the coastal plain. As the line approached the Interstate 95
corridor it intensified as it entered a more favorable thermodynamic environment and numerous
circulations began to show up in KRAX velocity data.
At 1420Z (920AM) a tornado warning was issued until 1500Z (1000AM) for a cell
showing rotation in southwest Sampson County. In addition to this cell, another smaller cell
was also showing signs of rotation in northern Sampson County. However, the cell in southwest Sampson
County was better organized and appeared to have a hook in the 0.9
degree reflectivity. Indeed, the smaller circulation dissipated and the circulation that
prompted the warning intensified and tightened up in northern
Sampson County by 1437Z. At this time, base velocities increased to
108 knots inbound! A tornado warning was issued for Johnston County at 1439Z, effective until 1530z,
as the intense circulation continued moving north. As the cell crossed the border into Johnston County at 1445Z
it further intensified, sporting 65 knots inbound and 40 knots outbound,
gate-to-gate in 0.9 degree storm-relative velocity data. Base velocity data at 0.9 degrees showed the circulation
now contained inbound velocities of up to 125 knots ! A
hook echo also showed up in reflectivity imagery at 1445Z. The
cell continued moving north, eventually weakening by the time it reached northern Johnston County. Funnel
cloud reports were received with this cell as it crossed Highway 70 and Interstate 95 near Selma in central
Johnston County.
At approximately 1544Z (1044AM) another cell developed strong
rotation in Duplin County. The cell continued to show
rotation as it moved northeast towards Wayne County. At 1557Z a tornado warning was issued
for Wayne County, effective until 1130z. The strong circulation subsequently moved almost directly
over the same portion of the County that had been affected by a supercell 3 hours earlier. The
storm knocked several trees down in the Walnut Creek area as it moved northeast through Wayne
County.
At 1556Z (1056AM), a cell in Nash County intensified
with a VIL of 35-40 kg/m2, 60-65 dBZ max reflectivities and echo tops of 46,000 feet. The intensity
of this cell, in addition to 60-70 knot outbound velocities at 2-3 kft prompted a severe
thunderstorm warning for Nash County at 1102Z, effective until 1115Z. The storm knocked a
tree down at 1110Z on the entrance ramp to highway 64 near Spring Hope in northeast Nash County.
Since the storm had a history and continued to show a relatively strong updraft/downdraft juxtaposed
with 60-70 knot outbound velocities, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Halifax County at
1114Z, effective until 1145Z. Reports of trees down in Enfield were received at 1125Z as the storm
moved northeast through Halifax County.