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You also can view and down load .PDF versions of my Published Papers (from 1999 onwards).
 

Working Papers of John J. Seater

    The following papers are available in .pdf format (Adobe Acrobat Reader).  Click on the title to view or download the paper.



 
"Factor-Eliminating Technical Change"  Pietro Peretto and John J. Seater.
Revised June 2008

ABSTRACT

    Endogenous growth requires that non-reproducible factors of production be either augmented or eliminated. Attention heretofore has focused almost exclusively on augmentation. In this paper, we study factor elimination. We present a theory of how maximizing agents decide when to reduce the importance of non-reproducible factors and what amount of resources to expend in doing so. For simplicity and clarity, there is no augmenting progress of any kind, thus excluding the standard engine of growth. We use a Cobb-Douglas production function with two factors of production, one reproducible and one not. By spending resources on R&D, agents learn to change the exponents of the production function. We obtain not only the economy's asymptotic behavior but also its complete transition dynamics. The economy starts with no capital and no knowledge of how to use it. Such a technology by itself cannot support growth. However, by conducting R&D, agents learn new technologies that use capital, which they then build. Growth occurs along the transition path. Asymptotically, however, growth may be bounded away from zero or may die out. The first outcome is an endogenous growth model, and the second is a standard Solow model that has no sources of growth. Which asymptotic outcome is achieved depends on the parameters governing saving and production, but there always is a feasible saving rate sufficiently high to give the perpetual growth outcome. The theory provides an endogenous mechanism for the transition from an initial production technology incapable of supporting perpetual growth to one that is capable of doing so, that is, from a technology with diminishing returns to the reproducible factors of production to one with constant returns to those factors. In contrast to virtually all other growth models, the origin is not a steady state. An economy that starts with pure primitive production becomes industrialized through its own efforts. Furthermore, the theory is not subject to the linearity (or singularity) critique. Linearity of the growth process is a necessary condition for perpetual growth. In our theory the economy initially can (and indeed does) fail to satisfy any such condition initially but nonetheless attains it endogenously through the kind of technical progress we study. The theory thus offers a purely endogenous explanation for the transition from a primitive economy to one that is developed and perpetually growing. The theory makes strong predictions on the relation between factor intensities and income per person. The data are consistent with those predictions.

 "Regulation and the Macroeconomy."  John Dawson and John J. Seater.

Revised August 2008

ABSTRACT

    We introduce a new measure of the extent of federal regulation in the U.S. and use it to investigate the relationship between federal regulation and macroeconomic performance.  We  find that regulation has statistically and economically significant effects on aggregate output and the factors that produce it–total factor productivity (TFP), physical capital, and labor.  Regulation has caused substantial reductions in the growth rates of both output and TFP and has had effects on the trends in capital and labor that vary over time in both sign and magnitude.  Regulation also affects deviations about the trends in output and its factors of production, and the effects differ across dependent variables.  Regulation changes the way output is produced by changing the mix of inputs.  Changes in regulation and marginal tax rates offer a straightforward explanation for the productivity slowdown of the 1970s.

Keywords: Regulation; macroeconomic performance

JEL classification: L50; O40

   
"The Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Innovations: Evidence from Canadian Provinces."  Joseph P. DeJuan and John J. Seater.
Revised April 2008

ABSTRACT

        This paper utilizes relatively unexplored Canadian provincial-level data to investigate an old but still relevant question in macroeconomics  as to whether consumption responds to income innovations in a manner consistent with the stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). The empirical results obtained do not appear to be in accord with the PIH. Instead consumption’s response to income innovations are found to be much weaker than the PIH predicts; in particular, the response displays an asymmetric pattern in the sense that it is much stronger for negative than positive income innovations. We interpret this evidence of asymmetry as being consistent with the presence of liquidity constraints in provincial households.
                               
JEL Classification: E21
Keywords: Consumption, Permanent Income, Canadian provinces

"Trade, Growth, and Technology Equalization."  John J. Seater.

Revised January 2008

ABSTRACT

    Trade is shown to affect economic growth purely through comparative advantage.  Unlike previous literature, this growth effect does not depend on the presence of scale effects, technology transfer, research and development, or even international investment, all of which are excluded by construction.  Trade never reduces growth, but whether trade raises a country’s growth rate or leaves it unchanged depends on whether a balanced world growth rate exists, which in turn depends on the pattern of both comparative and absolute advantage.  When a world balanced growth rate exists, trade always raises the growth rate of both trading partners.  Otherwise, either one partner's growth rate is increased and the other is unaffected or neither partner's growth rate is affected, depending on the comparative and absolute advantage patterns.  Trade therefore does not necessarily guarantee a stable world income distribution, contrary to some results in the literature.  Trade's effect on the growth rate of a country's output depends on the type of good imported but not the type exported.  In all cases, the effect of trade on a home country’s growth rate is the same as if that country had learned the technology used by its trading partner to produce the good that the home country imports.


 

You also can view and down load .PDF versions of my Published Papers (from 1999 onwards).
 
 

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