Undergraduate Research


 

At any given time, there are 1-3 undergraduate research projects taking place in the Forecasting Lab. Currently, we have projects involving winter weather prediction and flash flood forecasting. A past climatic study of North Carolina snowfall is also described.

 

Does Climate Change Imply a Shift in Mid-Latitude Storm Tracks?

    

Student Participants:

Lara Pagano

Research related links:






 

 

Experimental Forecasts of Aircraft and Surface Icing Using the WRF Model

     Funded by an NC Space Grant Undergraduate Research Scholarship, Richard is studying freezing rain and aircraft icing due to both freezing precipitation and supercooled clouds.

Student Participants:

Richard Barnhill

Research related links:

NC Space Grant Page
Scholarship Page
Unidata IDV Page
WRF Model Home Page

At left is an image from the Unidata Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) depicting WRF model-predicted turbulent kinetic energy (TKE, blue isosurface) superimposed with actual aircraft reports of turbulence (plus signs). Using the model's internal parameterization of turbulent energy has shown very promising early results as a forecasting diagnostic.


 

 

Experimental Forecasts of Clear Air Turbulence using the WRF Model

     Funded by an NC Space Grant Undergraduate Research Scholarship, Monica is studying Clear Air Turbulence above the planetary boundary layer affecting aircraft. During the summer of 2006, she will examine different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to optimize model predictions of turbulence. In addition, Monica has examined a brief climatology of turbulence events in order to gain an appreciation for the conditions giving rise to jet-level turbulence.

Student Participants:

Monica Overstreet

Research related links:

NC Space Grant Page
Scholarship Page
Unidata IDV Page
WRF Model Home Page

At left is an image from the Unidata Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) depicting WRF model-predicted turbulent kinetic energy (TKE, blue isosurface) superimposed with actual aircraft reports of turbulence (plus signs). Using the model's internal parameterization of turbulent energy has shown very promising early results as a forecasting diagnostic.


 

 

Winter Precipitation-Type Forecasting in the Carolinas

    The NWS office here in Raleigh has traditionally been a leader in developing new techniques to forecast precipitation type. This tradition continues as the NWS contributes to ongoing research to test and refine winter weather prediction tools. One such tool, based on "partial thickness" (the thickness, or distance between two given pressure levels, is a measure of the temperature in the intervening layer), has been used and tested extensively. Undergraduate researcher Danny Pydynowski has been working with Dr. Lackmann and NWS personnel to test this algorithm, and perhaps generalize it in new ways.

Student Participants:

Danny Pydynowski

Research related links:

NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research
Cold Air Damming Composites




 

 

Flash Flood Forecasting

    On the 4th of July holiday in 2001, a strong squall line moved over Wake County, NC and produced flash flooding, frequent lightning and up to 6 inches of rain over just a few hours.This event was not accurately predicted by numerical models, and it had major impacts on the public, as people were caught outdoors and unprepared at holiday events. Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been shown to the weakest parameter of numerical weather prediction, yet precipitation (especially of the convective type) affects the public considerably.
    This particular case was examined in order to understand the basic factors that resulted in such focused, heavy convection, as well as to determine model weaknesses and limitations in predicting this type of event. Additionally, observations, model output, and MM5 sensitivity test results were examined in order to identify signatures that can alert forecasters to flash flood potential in the future, even when model QPF guidance is lacking. Kelly Mahoney, who is now a doctoral student, began study on this case as an undergraduate research assistant.

Student Participants:

Kelly Mahoney




 

 

Climatic Study of NC Snowfall

    North Carolina snowfall events were analyzed in order to produce composite maps of a "typical North Carolina snowstorm." A ridge/low couplet was evident in many of the cases, suggesting a climatological pattern to such events. This research was presented at the Undergraduate Research Symposium at NC State on April 27, 2000.

Student Participants:

Bebbhin Walsh
Andrea Hampton

Research related links:

Climatic Study of NC Snowfall homepage


 

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