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Department of Energy (DOE) grant: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change | |
In collaboration with Drs. Anantha Aiyyer, Fred Semazzi, and Lian Xie, we are examining the question of how future climate change may influence the intensity and number of tropical cyclones. Our work is focussed primarily on the Atlantic basin. We are using output from climate model simulations in conjunction with a sophisticated numerical weather prediction model to generate high resolution simulations of current and future Atlantic tropical cyclones.
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National Science Foundation (NSF) grant: Process of MCS Propagation | |
 The ability to anticipate the formation, intensity, and movement of organized convective storms remains a major challenge for numerical prediction models as well as for human forecasters. In previous research, the inability of numerical weather prediction models to predict the movement of organized convective storms was hypothesized to reduce the accuracy of precipitation forecasts in the downstream region. In this work, we seek to improve the ability of forecast models to represent the motion of organized convective systems, with the ultimate goal being improvement in forecasts in and around these systems. | Student Participants: |
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) grant: Warm-Season Convection and Tropical Cyclone Impacts | |
Continuing the long-term collaboration between regional NWS offices and NC State, we are working to better understand and predict several warm-season weather phenomena. Research into the processes accompanying weather hazards associated with landfalling tropical cyclones, including heavy precipitation and tornadoes, are among the foci for this project. | Student Participants: |
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Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) grant: Real-Time Tropical Atlantic Forecasting System | |
 In collaboration with RENCI, we have set up an operational Atlantic Tropical Cyclone prediction system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was characterized by considerable activity, and the modeling system showed considerable success, even relative to more established forecasting systems. Efforts are underway to further improve the system for the 2009 season. | Student Participants: |
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Collaborative Science, Technology and Applied Research Program (CSTAR) | |
 A longstanding tradition of successful collaboration exists between the Raleigh NWS Forecast Office and NCSU. In 1999, the NWS-NCSU collaboration was taken to a new level with the funding of a NOAA CSTAR proposal- this project involves NCSU and several regional NWS offices, including Wilmington, Newport, and Raleigh NC, Wakefield, Blacksburg, and Sterling VA, and Greer, Columbia, and Charleston, SC. Input from operational forecasters at these offices allowed the CSTAR group to identify challenges that were common to all regional forecasters. A second CSTAR effort, designed to improve cold-season precipitation forecasts in the southeastern U.S., was begun in 2003. Observational case studies, climatological and satistical studies, and numerical models are being used to examine the precipitation distribution accompanying cold-air damming, coastal fronts, and coastal cyclones. The influence of upstream convection on the downstream precipitation forecast is a major focus. A couple of the questions to be answered are:
| Student Participants:
Mike Brennan
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NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research Site | |
National Science Foundation (NSF) grant: Diabatic Processes and Predictability | |
 It is well known that quantitative precipitation forecasting is a major weakness of numerical weather forecasting models. Owing to the fact that during heavy precipitation, condensation (and deposition) release tremendous amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere, one must then ask the question: "If numerical models produce an erroneous forecast of precipitation, what are the consequences for other aspects of the prediction?" The objectives of this research project are to examine the question of diabatic feedbacks into numerical model errors using a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. For adiabatic, frictionless flow, PV is a conservative quantity. Through this conservation principle, one can then identify unamiguously the impacts of diabatic processes. This, in conjunction with the invertibility principle, which links the PV to other atmospheric fields, allows us to analyze the impact of model precipitation errors on model forecasts. It appears that precipitation which is resolved explicitly by the model redistributes PV in a somewhat realistic manner; however, precipitation that is parameterized, rather than resolved, appears to be associated with more substantial errors in the lower-tropospheric PV field in some cases. The case of convective cold-frontal rainbands is currently under investigation to document forecast errors and examine the sensitivity of predictions to numerical model configuration. | Student Participants: |
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National Science Foundation (NSF) grant: Precipitation Mass Sink | |
 The removal of atmospheric mass is a process that is simple, yet overlooked. In most meteorology textbooks, the equation for conservation of mass, the continuity equation, is written with zero on the right hand side. However, shen precipitation removes what was formerly water vapor to the surface, then the right side of the equation is nonzero, and there is an associated hydrostatic pressure reduction. Although this effect is entirely negligible in most circumstances, it can be significant for systems that are characterized by very heavy precipitation, such as tropical storms and hurricanes. This project uses numerical models to quantify the magnitude of this mechanism in some recent hurricanes, including Lili (2002) and Isabel (2003). | Student Participants:
Richard Yablonsky |
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MM5 Home Page | |
National Science Foundation (NSF) grant: Coastal Cyclones | |
 In a joint effort with Dr. Sethu Raman, the primary objectives of the coastal cyclone project are to study the impact that the Gulf Stream and associated sea-surface temperature gradients have on the extratropical cyclogenesis process. | Student Participants: |
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Turfgrass Project | |
In a collaborative effort with the NC State Department of Plant Pathology, members of the Forecasting Lab are working to reduce
pesticide application by monitoring weather conditions that are associated with plant disease. By improving the predictibility of plant disease based on
meteorological conditions, the goal is to decrease the frequency and area over which pesticides and fungicides are applied. | Student Participants: Rick Palmieri Collaborators: Dr. Dev Niyogi Dr. Lane Tredway |
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South East Center for Mesoscale Environmental Prediction (SECMEP) | |
 The Southeast Center for Mesoscale Environmental Prediction is a research consortium made up of and jointly funded by the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University, Capitol Broadcasting Company, the State Climate Office of North Carolina, and SGI. SECMEP has several long range goals:
The MM5 is a limited-area, terrain-following, mesoscale model developed by The Pennsylvania State University, in cooperation with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. It is maintained by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of NCAR. | Student Participants: |
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MM5 Home Page | |
Meteorology in Support of Energy Trading (METEOSET) | |
Weather exerts a strong influence on energy prices. The ultimate goal of the METEOSET
project is to supply energy traders with unique and superior forecast information in order to provide a competitive edge. | Student Participants: |
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CDC Map Room | |
Collaborative Science, Technology and Applied Research Program (CSTAR) | |
A longstanding tradition of successful collaboration exists between the Raleigh NWS Forecast Office and NCSU. In 1999, the NWS-NCSU collaboration was taken to a new level with the funding of a NOAA CSTAR proposal- this project involves NCSU and 5 regional NWS offices, including Wilmington, Newport, and Raleigh NC, Wakefield, VA, and Greer, SC. Input from operational forecasters at these five offices allowed the CSTAR group to identify challenges that were common to all regional forecasters. The phenomenon of cold-air damming, and the coastal front, were identified, and are the focus of current CSTAR research. Currently, three graduate students and one undergraduate researcher are working with Drs. Riordan, Xie, and Lackmann on this project, with ongoing interaction at each of the five participating NWS offices. The objectives of the CSTAR Project are to:
| Student Participants:
Mike Brennan |
| Research related links:
NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research Site | |