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Lab Activities: Current and Past Research Projects
Department of Energy (DOE) grant: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
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In collaboration with Drs. Anantha Aiyyer, Fred Semazzi,
and Lian Xie, we are examining the question of how future
climate change may influence the intensity and number of
tropical cyclones. Our work is focussed primarily on the
Atlantic basin. We are using output from climate model
simulations in conjunction with a sophisticated numerical
weather prediction model to generate high resolution
simulations of current and future Atlantic tropical cyclones.
Offsetting effects are evident, with stabilization of the
atmosphere compensating warmer sea-surface temperatures.
However, there is variability in the amount of stabilization
that may occur, and even with this stabilization, some increase
in maximum intensity is expected. Furthermore, model simulations
reveal that precipitation amounts will increase even for storms
comparable in strength to current systems.
| Student Participants:
Megan Gentry
Kevin Hill
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| Research related links:
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National Science Foundation
(NSF) grant: Process of MCS Propagation
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The ability to anticipate the formation, intensity, and movement of organized convective storms remains a major challenge for numerical prediction models as well as for human forecasters. In previous research, the inability of numerical weather prediction models to predict the movement of organized convective storms was hypothesized to reduce the accuracy of precipitation forecasts in the downstream region. In this work, we seek to improve the ability of forecast models to represent the motion of organized convective systems, with the ultimate goal being improvement in forecasts in and around these systems.
| Student Participants:
Kelly Mahoney
Christian Cassell
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| Research related links:
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) grant: Warm-Season Convection and Tropical Cyclone Impacts
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Continuing the long-term collaboration between regional
NWS offices and NC State, we are working to better understand
and predict several warm-season weather phenomena. One recent focus is
the analysis of convective storms that form along the periphery of
cold-air damming events; an example of this phenomenon is depicted
in the radar image shown above. In addition, research
into the processes accompanying weather hazards associated with
landfalling tropical cyclones, including heavy precipitation
and tornadoes, are among the foci for this project.
| Student Participants:
Adam Baker
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| Research related links:
NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research Site
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Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) grant: Real-Time Tropical Atlantic Forecasting System
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In collaboration with RENCI, we have set up an operational Atlantic Tropical Cyclone prediction system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was characterized by considerable activity, and the modeling system showed considerable success, even relative to more established forecasting systems. Efforts are underway to further improve the system for the 2009 season.
| Student Participants:
Briana Gordon
Megan Gentry
Kevin Hill
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| Research related links:
HUR-NC Real-Time Atlantic Forecasts page
RENCI Home Page
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Past Research
Collaborative Science, Technology and Applied Research Program (CSTAR)
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A longstanding tradition of successful collaboration exists
between the Raleigh NWS Forecast Office and NCSU. In 1999, the NWS-NCSU
collaboration was taken to a new level with the funding of a NOAA
CSTAR proposal- this project involves NCSU and several regional NWS offices,
including Wilmington, Newport, and Raleigh NC, Wakefield, Blacksburg, and Sterling VA, and Greer,
Columbia, and Charleston, SC. Input from operational forecasters at these offices allowed
the CSTAR group to identify challenges that were common to
all regional forecasters. A second CSTAR effort, designed to improve
cold-season precipitation forecasts in the southeastern U.S., was begun in 2003. Observational case
studies, climatological and satistical studies, and numerical models are being
used to examine the precipitation distribution accompanying cold-air damming,
coastal fronts, and coastal cyclones. The influence of upstream convection on
the downstream precipitation forecast is a major focus. A couple of the
questions to be answered are:
- How does the presence of convection alter the moisture transport in
midlatitude cyclones and fronts affecting the southeast?
- How can models ideally represent this process?
| Student Participants:
Mike Brennan
Kelly Mahoney
Tom Green
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| Research related links:
NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research Site
Real-Time Split Front Detection Home Page
Split Front and Cold Front Aloft Tutorial
Cold Air Damming Composites
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National Science Foundation
(NSF) grant: Diabatic Processes and Predictability
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It is well known that quantitative precipitation forecasting is a major
weakness of numerical weather forecasting models. Owing to the fact that
during heavy precipitation, condensation (and deposition) release
tremendous amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere, one must then ask
the question: "If numerical models produce an erroneous forecast of
precipitation, what are the consequences for other aspects of the
prediction?"
The objectives of this research project are to examine the question of
diabatic feedbacks into numerical model errors using a potential vorticity
(PV) perspective. For adiabatic, frictionless flow, PV is a conservative
quantity. Through this conservation principle, one can then
identify unamiguously the impacts of diabatic processes. This, in
conjunction with the invertibility principle, which links the
PV to other atmospheric fields, allows us to analyze the impact of
model precipitation errors on model forecasts.
It appears that precipitation which is resolved explicitly by the model
redistributes PV in a somewhat realistic manner; however, precipitation that
is parameterized, rather than resolved, appears to be associated with
more substantial errors in the lower-tropospheric PV field in some cases. The
case of convective cold-frontal rainbands is currently under investigation
to document forecast errors and examine the sensitivity of predictions
to numerical model configuration.
| Student Participants:
Richard Yablonsky
Kelly Mahoney
Heather Reeves
Kyle Pressel
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| Research related links:
MM5 Home Page
ARPS Home Page
NASA Goddard Mesoscale Branch
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National Science Foundation
(NSF) grant: Precipitation Mass Sink
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The removal of atmospheric mass is a process that is simple, yet overlooked.
In most meteorology textbooks, the equation for conservation of mass, the
continuity equation, is written with zero on the right hand side. However,
shen precipitation removes what was formerly water vapor to the surface,
then the right side of the equation is nonzero, and
there is an associated hydrostatic pressure reduction. Although this
effect is entirely negligible in most circumstances, it can be significant
for systems that are characterized by very heavy precipitation, such as
tropical storms and hurricanes. This project uses numerical models to
quantify the magnitude of this mechanism in some recent hurricanes, including
Lili (2002) and Isabel (2003).
| Student Participants:
Richard Yablonsky
Kevin Hill
Megan Gentry
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| Research related links:
MM5 Home Page
ARPS Home Page
TPC Archives/Lili
TPC Archives/Isabel
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National Science Foundation
(NSF) grant: Coastal Cyclones
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In a joint effort with Dr. Sethu Raman, the primary objectives of the
coastal cyclone
project are to study the impact that the Gulf Stream and associated sea-surface
temperature gradients have on the extratropical cyclogenesis process.
| Student Participants:
Mike Brennan
Bliar Holloway
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| Research related links:
MM5 Home Page
ARPS Home Page
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South East Center for Mesoscale Environmental Prediction (SECMEP)
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The Southeast Center for Mesoscale Environmental Prediction is a
research consortium made up of and jointly funded by the Department
of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC
State University, Capitol
Broadcasting Company, the State
Climate Office of North Carolina, and SGI.
SECMEP has several long range goals:
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Provide high resolution mesoscale model forecasts for use by Capitol
Broadcasting Company.
Provide high resolution air quality forecasts for North Carolina.
Provide numerical modeling educational tools to North Carolina
institutions through the State Climate Office and the Department of
Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Provide forecasters with an interactive, directed process for
interrogating mesoscale model fields to address specific weather and
air quality forecasting needs.
Provide state-of-science coupled model forecasting techniques,
linking meteorology, emissions, air quality, and hydrology.
Provide North Carolina farmers with high resolution agricultural
forecasts through the State Climate Office.
The MM5 is a
limited-area, terrain-following, mesoscale model developed by The
Pennsylvania State University, in cooperation with the National
Center for Atmospheric Research. It is maintained by the Mesoscale
and Microscale Meteorology Division of NCAR.
| Student Participants:
Jason Caldwell
Jason Cerjak
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| Research related links:
MM5 Home Page
NWP Precipitation Processes Lessons
Texas A&M Department of Meteorology
FSU Department of Meteorology
IWDS Home Page
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Meteorology in Support of Energy Trading (METEOSET)
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Weather exerts a strong influence on energy prices. The ultimate goal of the METEOSET
project is to supply energy traders with unique and superior forecast information in order to provide a competitive edge.
The goals of the METEOSET project will be achieved through
statistical and synoptic-dynamic analysis of summertime
heat waves, evaluation of case summaries of identified heat wave events, and completing
composite analyses
of heat wave events from gridded meteorological data sets. The forecasts will be provided
in terms that are easily interpreted by energy traders.
The end result of this study will be a unique
and sophisticated forecasting process that is specifically designed
for the accurate prediction of extreme heat in the 0-10 day time frame.
| Student Participants:
Wyat Appel
Scott Kennedy
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| Research related links:
CDC Map Room
Climate Prediction Center
Operational Models Matrix
COLA/IGES Weather & Climate Images
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Collaborative Science, Technology and Applied Research Program (CSTAR)
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A longstanding tradition of successful collaboration exists
between the Raleigh NWS Forecast Office and NCSU. In 1999, the NWS-NCSU
collaboration was taken to a new level with the funding of a NOAA
CSTAR proposal- this project involves NCSU and 5 regional NWS offices,
including Wilmington, Newport, and Raleigh NC, Wakefield, VA, and Greer,
SC. Input from operational forecasters at these five offices allowed
the CSTAR group to identify challenges that were common to
all regional forecasters. The phenomenon of cold-air damming, and the
coastal front, were identified, and are the focus of current CSTAR
research. Currently, three graduate students and one
undergraduate researcher are working with Drs. Riordan, Xie, and Lackmann
on this project, with ongoing interaction at each of the five participating
NWS offices. The objectives of the CSTAR Project are to:
- Strengthen conceptual models of Cold-Air Damming (CAD) and the Coastal Front (CF) through extended climatologies, and especially improving
understanding of process-interactions during CAD and CF events. Examples include interactions of migratory frontal structures and cyclonic
systems with CAD and CF events.
- Diagnose the dynamics of a diverse set of CAD and CF cases through detailed observational studies.
- Elucidate the physical processes leading to erosion of the cold dome and onshore surging of the coastal front.
- Improve model representation of these proceses.
- Determine the optimal mesoscale model configurations for real-time CAD and CF forecasting.
| Student Participants:
Mike Brennan
Wendy Sellers
Keith Contre
Wyat Appel
Chris Bailey
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| Research related links:
NWS-NCSU Collaborative Research Site
Real-Time Split Front Detection Home Page
Split Front and Cold Front Aloft Tutorial
Cold Air Damming Composites
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