Workshop for Society of Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Sunday, December 9, 2007

8:00 am to 5:00 pm

San Antonio, Texas
 
                                                                                  

 

Methods for Probabilistic and Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Models

 

Abstract

Registration

Venue

Syllabus Outline

Biographical Sketches for the Course Instructors

For More Information…

 

Workshop Abstract

This workshop will answer key questions faced by those who conduct, manage, or review probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of risk models. When should you perform sensitivity analysis? What are the typical simulation techniques and software packages? What are the roles of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses as value added techniques in risk assessment? How do you prepare a model to facilitate sensitivity analysis? What are key considerations in the development of scenarios that are the basis for sensitivity analysis? What are some typical sensitivity analysis methods and how can you select among them? How should particular sensitivity analysis methods be applied? How should the results of sensitivity analysis be presented and interpreted? This workshop will answer these questions. The methods and case studies that will be presented in this workshop are based upon several years of research at NC State University and RTI International regarding developing quantitative risk assessment models for environmental and microbial systems and also research at NCSU regarding transferring, applying, and adapting sensitivity analysis methods developed in other disciplines (e.g. complex engineering systems) to quantitative exposure and risk assessment models. This workshop helps practitioners in selecting specific sensitivity analysis methods that are relevant to a particular case study and to the characteristics of the model.  Practitioners can also use the instructions in the workshop to aid in interpreting results from a sensitivity analysis in response to a particular modeling objective. Workshop participants will be provided with course notes, a copy of a guidance document for sensitivity analysis, and a tutorial with examples for instructing attendees how to perform sensitivity analysis using common sensitivity analysis methods. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods will also be illustrated with practical case studies. This workshop is aimed at practitioners, managers, or reviewers who wish to refine their knowledge regarding approaches in risk assessment and sensitivity analysis methods.

 

Presenters:

            Dr. Amir H. Mokhtari

            Dr. H. Christopher Frey

                       

 

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Registration

The registration fee is $295 before 3 November, or $355 on site. You do not need to register for the Annual Meeting to attend the workshop. Registration will be handled by

Secretariat sra@burkinc.com
Society for Risk Analysis http://depts.washington.edu/irarc/www.sra.org
1313 Dolley Madison Boulevard, Suite 402
McLean, Virginia 22101 USA
703-790-1745, fax 703-790-2672

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Venue

The event will be held 8:00 - 5:00 on Sunday, 9 December 2007, at

San Antonio Marriott Rivercenter
101 Bowie Street
San Antonio, Texas 78205 USA
1-800-648-4462 (toll-free reservations)
1-210-223-1000 (direct to the hotel)
1-210-223-6239 (fax)
http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/satrc-san-antonio-marriott-rivercenter/
www.marriott.com

The meeting room for the workshop has not yet been determined; check with the hotel concierge on Sunday morning for directions to the meeting room.

Reserve a room at the hotel before 21 November 2007 to obtain the SRA rate of $159 per night (single or double occupancy) plus 16.75% tax. Be sure to mention the Society for Risk Analysis to receive the SRA group rate. This rate is available for stays between 7 and 12 December 2007, subject to availability. Remember the cut off for this rate is 21 November 2007, or until the SRA room block is sold out. Reserve your room early. Cancellations must be made at least 48 hours in advance. You can make hotel reservations on line or by telephoning 1-210-223-1000 or (toll-free) 1-800-648-4462. See the hotel fact sheet for a description of the venue and directions.

The average high temperature in San Antonio in early December is 65 °F (18 °C) and the average low is 42 °F (5 °C). The hotel is next to San Antonio's beautiful River Walk (Paseo del Rio).

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Syllabus (one day, 8am-5:30pm)

  1. Introduction of Presenters                                                                                     
  2. Introduction and background about probabilistic modeling
  3. Advanced techniques in quantitative risk assessment: the concept of sensitivity analysis
  4. Preparing existing and new models for sensitivity analysis                                                                            
  5. Defining the Case Study Scenarios                                                                          
  6. Available Methods for Sensitivity Analysis and General Procedures for Application       
  7. Selection of Sensitivity Analysis Methods                                                                        
  8. Presentation and Interpretation of Results                                             
  9. Method Demonstration: Step-by-Step Tutorial with Examples              
  10. Discussion                                                                                                       
  11. Wrap-Up

 

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Biographical Sketches for the Course Instructors

 

Dr. Amir H. Mokhtari is currently a Research Environmental Scientist at RTI International, and has extensive experience in environmental and microbial food safety exposure and risk assessment, quantification of variability and uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis of probabilistic and stochastic models. Dr. Mokhtari has worked on many research projects sponsored particularly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). These projects have resulted in numerous peer-reviewed publications and technical reports as deliverables to government agencies. Dr. Mokhtari currently provides risk assessment support to various clients on a diverse array of projects, including, but not limited to, developing a methodological framework for the fate and transport of pathogens in the environment due to application of biosolids for agricultural purposes; modeling consumer-phase risk assessment for microbial pathogens with considerable impact on the burden of foodborne diseases; quantifying transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in the population; and evaluating the role of food handlers in the spread of microbial diseases.

 

Dr. Christopher H. Frey is a Professor of Civil Engineering at North Carolina State University.  His research is primarily in the areas of:  (1) quantification of variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk assessment; (2) quantification of variability and uncertainty in emissions factors and inventories; (3) measurement and modeling of real world in-use vehicle emissions; and (4) modeling and evaluation of energy systems.  Sponsors of Dr. Frey’s research program at NC State have included NC Department of Transportation, Center for Transportation and the Environment, Transportation Research Board, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Science Foundation. These projects have resulted in numerous peer-reviewed journal publications, peer-reviewed conference papers, other technical papers, and technical reports. Dr. Frey is active in several professional societies.  He has served as president of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA).  He is a past chair of the EE-1 Exposure and Health Effects technical committee of the Air & Waste Management Association, and serves as the faculty advisor of NCSU's student chapter of AWMA.  Dr. Frey was awarded the 1999 Chauncey Starr Award from SRA for exceptional contributions to the field of risk analysis, particularly in the area of quantification of variability and uncertainty.  In 2006, Dr. Frey was recognized as a Fellow of SRA.

 

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For more information…

 

Contact Dr. Mokhtari at “amokhtari at rti.org” where “ at ” designates “@”

Related links

Society for Risk Analysis www.sra.org

Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting http://sra.org/events_2007_meeting.php

Hotel reservations http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/satrc-san-antonio-marriott-rivercenter/

Hotel fact sheet http://www.marriott.com/hotels/fact-sheet/travel/satrc-san-antonio-marriott-rivercenter/

Weather in San Antonio http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/San_Antonio.html

San Antonio Visitors and Convention Bureau http://www.sanantoniocvb.com/

San Antonio River Walk (Paseo del Rio) http://www.thesanantonioriverwalk.com/

San Antonio Wikipedia entry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Antonio,_Texas

 

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- last updated July 11, 2007.