- Dennis Bahler and D. Bristol,
The Induction of Rules for Predicting Chemical
Carcinogenesis in Rodents,
in L. Hunter, J. Shavlik, and D. Searls, eds. Intelligent
Systems for Molecular Biology, Menlo Park, CA: AAAI/MIT Press, 1993,
29-37.
This paper presents results from an ongoing effort in applying
a variety of induction-based methods to the problem of predicting
the biological activity of noncongeneric (structurally dissimilar)
chemicals.
It describes initial experiments, the long-term
goal of which
is to assist toxicologists, cancer researchers, regulators, and others to
predict the toxic effects of chemical compounds.
We describe a series of experiments in tree and rule induction from a set
of example chemicals whose carcinogenicity has been determined
from long-term animal
studies, and compare the resulting classification accuracy
with eight published human and computer predictions for a common set
of 44 test chemicals.
The accuracy of our system is comparable to the most accurate human
expert prediction yet published,
and exceeds that of any of the computer-based predictions in the literature.
The induced rules provide confirmation of current expert heuristic
knowledge in this domain.
These early results show that an inductive approach has excellent
potential in predictive toxicology.
(378kb PDF)