Alun Lloyd's publication list

  1. Okamoto, K.W., Robert, M.A., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Feasible introgression of an anti-pathogen transgene into an urban mosquito population without using gene-drive. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. In press.

  2. Smith, D.L., Perkins, T.A., Reiner, R.C., Barker, C.M., Niu, T., Chaves, L.F., Ellis, A.M., George, D.B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J.R.C., Bisanzio, D., Buckee, C., Chiyaka, C., Cummings, D.A.T., Garcia, A.J., Gatton, M.L., Gething, P.W., Hartley, D.M., Johnston, G., Klein, E.Y., Michael, E., Lloyd, A.L., Piggot, D.M., Reisen, W.K., Ruktanonchai, N., Singh, B.K., Stoller, J., Tatem, A.J., Kitron, U., Godfray, H.C.J., Cohen, J.M., Hay, S.I. & Scott, T.W. (2014). Recasting the Theory of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission Dynamics and Control. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 108, 185-197. DOI:10.1093/trstmh/tru026 PDF

  3. Yarmand, H., Ivy, J.S., Denton, B. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Optimal Two-Phase Vaccine Allocation to Geographically Different Regions under Uncertainty. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 233, 208-219.

  4. Okamoto, K.W., Robert, M.A., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). A Reduce and Replace strategy for suppressing vector-borne diseases: Insights from a stochastic, spatial model. PLoS ONE 8(12):e81860. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0081860 PDF.

  5. Legros, M., Xu, C., Morrison, A., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). Modeling the dynamics of a non-limited and a self-limited gene drive system in structured Aedes aegypti populations. PLoS ONE 8: e83354. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0083354 PDF

  6. Scholle, S.O., Ypma, R.J.F., Lloyd, A.L. & Koelle, K. (2013). Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamics. Am. Nat. 182, 494-513.

  7. Robert, M.A., Okamoto, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). A Reduce and Replace strategy for suppressing vector-borne diseases: Insights from a deterministic model. PLoS ONE 8(9): e73233. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0073233 PDF

  8. Walsh, R.K., Aguilar, C.L., Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). Regulation of Aedes aegypti population dynamics in field systems: Quantifying direct and delayed density dependence. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 89, 68-77. DOI:10.4269/ajtmh.12-0378

  9. Breen, M., Villeneuve, D.L., Ankley, G.T., Bencic, D.C., Breen, M.S., Watanabe, K.H., Lloyd, A.L. & Conolly, R.B. (2013). Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: II. Computational Modeling. Toxicol. Sci. 133, 234-247.

  10. Reiner, R.C., Perkins, T.A., Barker, C.M., Niu, T., Chaves, L.F., Ellis, A.M., George, D.B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J.R.C., Bisanzio, D., Buckee, C., Chiyaka, C., Cummings, D.A.T., Garcia, A.J., Gatton, M.L., Gething, P.W., Hartley, D.M., Johnston, G., Klein, E.Y., Michael, E., Lindsay, S.W., Lloyd, A.L., Piggot, D.M., Reisen, W.K., Ruktanonchai, N., Singh, B.K., Tatem, A.J., Kitron, U., Hay, S.I., Scott, T.W., & Smith, D.L. (2013). A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. J. R. Soc. Interface. 10: 20120291. PDF

  11. Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Gould, F., Walsh, R.K., Bond, G., Robert, M.A., Lloyd, A.L., James, A.A., Alphey, L. & Scott, T.W. (2013). Field cage studies and progressive evaluation of genetically-engineered mosquitoes. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 7(1): e2001. PDF

  12. Legros, M., Xu, C., Okamoto, K., Scott, T.W., Morrison, A.C., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2012). Assessing the feasibility of controlling Aedes aegypti with transgenic methods: A model-based evaluation. PLoS ONE 7(12): e52235. PDF

  13. Robert, M.A., Legros, M., Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Scott, T.W., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2012). Mathematical models as aids for design and interpretation of experiments: The case of transgenic mosquitoes. J. Med. Entomol. 49, 1177-1188. PDF Supplementary information: Appendix 1, Appendix 2

  14. Capaldi, A., Behrend, S., Berman, B., Smith, J. & Lloyd, A.L. (2012). Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for an epidemic model. Math. Biosci. Eng. 9, 553-576. PDF

  15. Durrett, R., Gleeson, J.P., Lloyd, A.L., Mucha, P.J., Shi, F., Sivakoff, D., Socolar, J. & Varghese, C. (2012). Graph fission in an evolving voter model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 109, 3682-3687. PDF
  16. Walker, T., Johnson, P.H., Moreira, L.A., Iturbe-Ormaetxe, I., Frentiu, F.D., McMeniman, C.J., Leong, Y.S., Dong, Y., Axford, J., Kriesner, P., Lloyd, A.L, Ritchie, S.A., O’Neill, S.L. & Hoffmann, A.A. (2011). The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations. Nature 456, 450-453.
  17. Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Legros, M. & Gould, F. (2011). Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: A theoretical assessment. Evol. Applic. 4(3), 415-428. doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00153.x
  18. Breen, M., Breen, M.S., Terasaki, N. Yamazaki, M., Lloyd, A.L. & Conolly, R.B. (2011). Mechanistic computational model of steroidogenesis in H295R cells: Role of oxysterols and cell proliferation to improve predictability of biochemical response to endocrine active chemicals. Toxicol. Sci. 123(1), 80-93.
  19. Legros, M., Magori, K., Morrison, A.C., Xu, C., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2011). Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations. PLoS ONE 6(7), e22701. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022701 PDF
  20. Ward, C.M., Su, J.T., Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Gould, F. & Hay, B.A. (2011). Medea selfish genetic elements as tools for altering traits of wild populations: A theoretical analysis. Evolution. 65(4), 1149-1162. doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01186.x
  21. Xu, C., Legros, M., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2010). Understanding uncertainties in model-based predictions of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 4(9), e830. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000830 PDF Supplementary information
  22. Arauz, L.F., Neufeld, K.N., Lloyd, A.L. & Ojiambo, P.S. (2010). Quantitative models for germination and infection of Psuedoperonospora cubensis in response to temperature and duration of leaf wetness. Phytopathology 100, 959-967.
  23. Conlan, A.J.K., Rohani, P., Lloyd, A.L., Keeling, M. & Grenfell, B.T. (2010). Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J. R. Soc. Interface. 7, 561-571.
  24. Magori, K., Legros, M., Puente, M.E., Focks, D.A., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2009). Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially-explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 3, e508. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000508 PDF Supplementary Information.
  25. Sattenspiel, S., with contributions from A. Lloyd, (2009). The Geographic Spread of Infectious Diseases. Models and Applications. Princeton University Press.
  26. Lloyd, A.L. & Sattenspiel, L. (2009). Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Measles: Synchrony and Persistence in a Disease Metapopulation. In: Spatial Ecology, S. Cantrell, C. Cosner and S. Ruan (eds.), Chapman and Hall.
  27. Cintron-Arias, A., Banks, H.T., Capaldi, A. & Lloyd, A.L. (2009). A sensitivity matrix based methodology for inverse problem formulation. J. Inv. Ill-posed Problems. 17, 545-564.
  28. Lloyd, A.L. (2009). Sensitivity of Model-Based Epidemiological Parameter Estimation to Model Assumptions. Chapter 6, pages 123-141. In: Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology, G. Chowell, M. Hyman, L. Bettencourt and C. Castillo-Chavez (eds.), Springer.
  29. Legros, M., Lloyd, A.L., Huang, Y. & Gould, F. (2009). Density-dependent intraspecific competition in the larval stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the current paradigm. J. Med. Entomol. 46, 409-419.
  30. Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Legros, M. & Gould, F. (2009). Invasion of selfish genetic elements into age-structured populations. Evol. Applications 2, 143-159. doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00049.x PDF
  31. Cintron-Arias, A., Castillo-Chavez, C., Bettencourt, L.M.A., Lloyd, A.L. & Banks, H.T. (2009). The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data. Math. Biosci. Eng. 6, 261-282. PDF
  32. Gould, F., Huang, Y., Legros, M. & Lloyd, A.L. (2008). A Killer-Rescue system for self-limiting gene-drive of anti-pathogen constructs. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 275, 2823-2829. PDF Supplementary information.
  33. Lloyd, A.L., Zhang, J. & Root, A.M. (2007). Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models. J. Roy. Soc. Interface 4, 851-863. PDF Supplementary information.
  34. Huang, Y., Magori, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2007). Introducing transgenes into insect populations using combined gene-drive strategies: Modeling and analysis. Insect Biochem. Molecular Biol. 37, 1054-1063. PDF
  35. Bai, P., Banks, H.T., Dediu, S., Govan, A.Y., Last, M., Lloyd, A.L., Nguyen, H.K., Olufsen, M.S., Rempala, G. & Slenning, B.D. (2007). Stochastic and deterministic models for agricultural production networks. Math. Biosci. Eng. 4, 373-402. PDF
  36. Huang, Y., Magori, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2007). Introducing desirable transgenes into insect populations using Y-linked meiotic drive- A theoretical assessment. Evolution 61, 717-726. PDF
  37. Lloyd, A.L. & Valeika, S. (2007). Network Models in Epidemiology: An Overview. In: Complex Population Dynamics: Nonlinear Modeling in Ecology, Epidemiology and Genetics, B. Blasius, J. Kurths and L. Stone (eds.), World Scientific. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  38. Lloyd, A.L., Valeika, S. & Cintron-Arias, A. (2006) Infection Dynamics on Small-World Networks. In: Modeling the Dynamics of Human Diseases: Emerging Paradigms and Challenges, A.B. Gumel, C. Castillo-Chavez and D.P. Clemence (eds.), AMS. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  39. Lloyd, A.L. & Wodarz, D. (2006). Drug Resistance in Acute Viral Infections: Rhinovirus as a Case Study. In: Disease evolution: Models, Concepts, and Data Analyses, Z. Feng, U. Diekmann and S. Levin (eds.), AMS/DIMACS. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  40. Sabouri, A.H., Saito, M., Lloyd, A.L., Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.W., Furukawa, Y., Izumo, S., Marshall, S.E.F, Usuku, K., Bangham, C.R.M. & Osame, M. (2004) IL-10 Promoter gene single nucleotide polymorphism determines both provirus load of human T-lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) in infected individuals and the risk of HTLV-I associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). J. Inf. Dis. 190, 1279-1285. PDF
  41. Wodarz, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (2004). Immune responses and the emergence of drug-resistant virus strains in vivo. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 271, 1101-1109. PDF
  42. Lloyd, A.L. (2004). Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques. Theor. Popul. Biol. 65, 49-65. PDF
  43. Lloyd, A.L., & Jansen, V.A.A. (2004). Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models. Math. Biosci. 188, 1-16. PDF
  44. Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.D., Lloyd, A.L., Jeffery, K.J., Siddiqui, A., Marshall, S.E., Bunce, M., Eiraku, N., Izumo, S., Usuku, K., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R. (2002). Polygenic control of Human T Lymphotropic Virus type I (HTLV-I) provirus load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis. J. Infect. Dis. 186, 932-9. PDF
  45. Gravenor, M.B., Lloyd, A.L., Kremsner, P.G., Missinou, M.A., English, M., Marsh, K., & Kwiatkowski, D. (2002). A model for estimating total parasite load in falciparum malaria patients. J. Theor. Biol. 217 , 137-148. PDF
  46. May, R.M., & Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Infection dynamics on scale-free networks. Phys. Rev. E. 64, 066112. PDF
  47. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Realistic distributions of infectious periods in epidemic models: changing patterns of persistence and dynamics. Theor. Popul. Biol. 60, 59-71. PDF
  48. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (2001). How viruses spread among computers and people. Science 292, 1316-1317.
  49. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 268, 985-993. PDF online appendix
  50. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: limitations of studies of viral load data. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 268, 847-854. PDF
  51. Jeffery, K.J.M., Siddiqui, A.A., Bunce, M., Lloyd, A.L., Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.D., Izumo, S., Usuku, K., Welsh, K.I., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R.M. (2000). The influence of HLA class I alleles and heterozygosity on the outcome of human T cell lymphotropic virus type T infection. J. Immunol. 165, 7278-7284. PDF
  52. Jansen, V.A.A., & Lloyd, A.L. (2000). Local stability analysis of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch systems. J. Math. Biol. 41, 232-252. PDF
  53. Masel, J., Arnaout, R.A., O'Brien, T.R., Goedert, J.J., & Lloyd, A.L. (2000). Fluctuations in HIV-1 viral load are correlated to CD4(+) T- lymphocyte count during the natural course of infection. JAIDS 23, 375-379.
  54. Barchet, W., Oehen, S., Klenerman, P., Wodarz, D., Bocharov, G., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., Hengartner, H., Zinkernagel, R.M., & Ehl, S. (2000). Direct quantitation of rapid elimination of viral antigen-positive lymphocytes by antiviral CD8(+) T cells in vivo. Eur. J. Immunol. 30, 1356-1363. PDF
  55. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (1999) Synchronicity, chaos and population cycles: spatial coherence in an uncertain world. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 417-418. PDF
  56. Arnaout, R.A., Lloyd, A.L., O'Brien, T.R., Goedert, J.J., Leonard, J.M., & Nowak, M.A. (1999). A simple relationship between viral load and survival time in HIV-1 infection. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 11549-11553. PDF
  57. Haydon, D.T., & Lloyd, A.L. (1999). On the origins of the Lotka-Volterra Equations. Bull. Ecol. Soc. America 80, 205-206. PDF
  58. Jeffery, K.J.M., Usuku, K., Hall, S.E., Matsumoto, W., Taylor, G.P., Procter, J., Bunce, M., Ogg, G.S., Welsh, K.I., Weber, J.N., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., Nagai, M., Kodama, D., Izumo, S., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R.M. (1999). HLA alleles determine human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) proviral load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 3848-3853. PDF
  59. Wodarz, D., Lloyd, A.L., Jansen, V.A.A., & Nowak, M.A. (1999). Dynamics of macrophage and T cell infection by HIV. J. Theor. Biol. 196, 101-113. PDF
  60. Gravenor, M.B., & Lloyd, A.L. (1998). Reply to: Models for the in-host dynamics of malaria revisited: errors in some basic models lead to large overestimates of growth rates. Parasitology 117, 409-410. PDF
  61. Chun, T.W., Stuyver, L., Mizell, S.B., Ehler, L.A., Mican, J.A.M., Baseler, M., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., & Fauci, A.S. (1997). Presence of an inducible HIV-1 latent reservoir during highly active antiretroviral therapy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 13193-13197. PDF
  62. Lifson, J.D., Nowak, M.A., Goldstein, S., Rossio, J.L., Kinter, A., Vasquez, G., Wiltrout, T.A., Brown, C., Schneider, D., Wahl, L., Lloyd, A.L., Williams, J., Elkins, W.R., Fauci, A.S., & Hirsch, V.M. (1997). The extent of early viral replication is a critical determinant of the natural history of simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J. Virol. 71, 9508-9514. PDF
  63. Nowak, M.A., Lloyd, A.L., Vasquez, G.M., Wiltrout, T.A., Wahl, L.M., Bischofberger, N., Williams, J., Kinter, A., Fauci, A.S., Hirsch, V.M., & Lifson, J.D. (1997). Viral dynamics of primary viremia and antiretroviral therapy in simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J. Virol. 71, 7518-7525. PDF
  64. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (1996) Spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models. J. Theor. Biol. 179, 1-11. PDF
  65. Lloyd, A.L., & Lloyd, D. (1995) Chaos- its significance and detection in biology. Biol. Rhythm Res. 26, 233-252.
  66. Lloyd, A.L. (1995). Computing bouts of the prisoner's dilemma. Sci. Am. 272 (6), 110-115.
  67. Lloyd, A.L. (1995). The coupled logistic map- A simple model for the effects of spatial heterogeneity on population dynamics. J. Theor. Biol. 173, 217-230. PDF
  68. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (1994). Hypothesis- A controlled chaotic attractor constitutes the central oscillator of the circadian clock. Biochem. Soc. Trans. 22, S322.
  69. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd A.L. (1994). A controlled chaotic attractor could provide a tunable oscillator for circadian clocks. Biol. Rhythm Res. 25, 235-240.
  70. Lloyd, A.L. (1994). Chaos and forecasting. Trends Ecol. Evol. 9, 244-245.
  71. Lloyd, A.L., & Gravenor, M.B. (1994). Linear filters and nonlinear forecasting. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 256, 157-161. PDF
  72. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (1993). Hypothesis- a controlled chaotic attractor constitutes the central oscillator of the circadian clock. J. Interdiscip. Cycle Res. 24, 231-232.
  73. Mason, D.J., Lloyd, A.L. & Lloyd, D. (1993). An inexpensive infrared growth sensor array for detection of bacterial antibiotic susceptibility. FEMS Microbiol. Lett. 111, 251-254.
  74. Lloyd, A.L., & Lloyd, D. (1993). Hypothesis- the central oscillator of the circadian clock is a controlled chaotic attractor. Biosystems 29, 77-85.
  75. Lloyd, D., Lloyd, A.L., & Olsen, L.F. (1992) The cell-division cycle- a physiologically plausible dynamic model can exhibit chaotic solutions. Biosystems 27, 17-24.
  76. Lloyd, D., James, C.J., Lloyd, A.L., Yarlett, N., & Yarlett, N.C. (1987). The effects of oxygen on fermentation in Tritrichomonas fetus KV1 and its variant 1MR-100 with defective hydrogenosomes. J. Gen. Microbiol. 133, 1181-1186.

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