Alun Lloyd's publication list

  1. Conlan, A.J.K., Rohani, P., Lloyd, A.L., Keeling, M. & Grenfell, B.T. (2009). Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J. R. Soc. Interface. (In Press.)
  2. Magori, K., Legros, M., Puente, M.E., Focks, D.A., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2009). Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially-explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 3, e508. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000508. PDF Supplementary Information.
  3. Sattenspiel, S., with contributions from A. Lloyd, (2009). The Geographic Spread of Infectious Diseases. Models and Applications. Princeton University Press.
  4. Lloyd, A.L. & Sattenspiel, L. (2009). Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Measles: Synchrony and Persistence in a Disease Metapopulation. In: Spatial Ecology, S. Cantrell, C. Cosner and S. Ruan (eds.), Chapman and Hall.
  5. Cintron-Arias, A., Banks, H.T., Capaldi, A. & Lloyd, A.L. (2009). A sensitivity matrix based methodology for inverse problem formulation. J. Inv. Ill-posed Problems. 17, 545-564.
  6. Lloyd, A.L. (2009). Sensitivity of Model-Based Epidemiological Parameter Estimation to Model Assumptions. Chapter 6, pages 123-141. In: Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology, G. Chowell, M. Hyman, L. Bettencourt and C. Castillo-Chavez (eds.), Springer.
  7. Legros, M., Lloyd, A.L., Huang, Y. & Gould, F. (2009). Density-dependent intraspecific competition in the larval stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the current paradigm. J. Med. Entomol. 46, 409-419.
  8. Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Legros, M. & Gould, F. (2009). Invasion of selfish genetic elements into age-structured populations. Evol. Applications 2, 143-159. doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00049.x PDF
  9. Cintron-Arias, A., Castillo-Chavez, C., Bettencourt, L.M.A., Lloyd, A.L. & Banks, H.T. (2009). The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data. Math. Biosci. Eng. 6, 261-282. PDF
  10. Gould, F., Huang, Y., Legros, M. & Lloyd, A.L. (2008). A Killer-Rescue system for self-limiting gene-drive of anti-pathogen constructs. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 275, 2823-2829. PDF Supplementary information.
  11. Lloyd, A.L., Zhang, J. & Root, A.M. (2007). Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models. J. Roy. Soc. Interface 4, 851-863. PDF Supplementary information.
  12. Huang, Y., Magori, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2007). Introducing transgenes into insect populations using combined gene-drive strategies: Modeling and analysis. Insect Biochem. Molecular Biol. 37, 1054-1063. PDF
  13. Bai, P., Banks, H.T., Dediu, S., Govan, A.Y., Last, M., Lloyd, A.L., Nguyen, H.K., Olufsen, M.S., Rempala, G. & Slenning, B.D. (2007). Stochastic and deterministic models for agricultural production networks. Math. Biosci. Eng. 4, 373-402. PDF
  14. Huang, Y., Magori, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2007). Introducing desirable transgenes into insect populations using Y-linked meiotic drive- A theoretical assessment. Evolution 61, 717-726. PDF
  15. Lloyd, A.L. & Valeika, S. (2007). Network Models in Epidemiology: An Overview. In: Complex Population Dynamics: Nonlinear Modeling in Ecology, Epidemiology and Genetics, B. Blasius, J. Kurths and L. Stone (eds.), World Scientific. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  16. Lloyd, A.L., Valeika, S. & Cintron-Arias, A. (2006) Infection Dynamics on Small-World Networks. In: Modeling the Dynamics of Human Diseases: Emerging Paradigms and Challenges, A.B. Gumel, C. Castillo-Chavez and D.P. Clemence (eds.), AMS. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  17. Lloyd, A.L. & Wodarz, D. (2006). Drug Resistance in Acute Viral Infections: Rhinovirus as a Case Study. In: Disease evolution: Models, Concepts, and Data Analyses, Z. Feng, U. Diekmann and S. Levin (eds.), AMS/DIMACS. PDF (uncorrected preprint)
  18. Sabouri, A.H., Saito, M., Lloyd, A.L., Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.W., Furukawa, Y., Izumo, S., Marshall, S.E.F, Usuku, K., Bangham, C.R.M. & Osame, M. (2004) IL-10 Promoter gene single nucleotide polymorphism determines both provirus load of human T-lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) in infected individuals and the risk of HTLV-I associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). J. Inf. Dis. 190, 1279-1285. PDF
  19. Wodarz, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (2004). Immune responses and the emergence of drug-resistant virus strains in vivo. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 271, 1101-1109. PDF
  20. Lloyd, A.L. (2004). Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques. Theor. Popul. Biol. 65, 49-65. PDF
  21. Lloyd, A.L., & Jansen, V.A.A. (2004). Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models. Math. Biosci. 188, 1-16. PDF
  22. Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.D., Lloyd, A.L., Jeffery, K.J., Siddiqui, A., Marshall, S.E., Bunce, M., Eiraku, N., Izumo, S., Usuku, K., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R. (2002). Polygenic control of Human T Lymphotropic Virus type I (HTLV-I) provirus load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis. J. Infect. Dis. 186, 932-9. PDF
  23. Gravenor, M.B., Lloyd, A.L., Kremsner, P.G., Missinou, M.A., English, M., Marsh, K., & Kwiatkowski, D. (2002). A model for estimating total parasite load in falciparum malaria patients. J. Theor. Biol. 217 , 137-148. PDF
  24. May, R.M., & Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Infection dynamics on scale-free networks. Phys. Rev. E. 64, 066112. PDF
  25. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Realistic distributions of infectious periods in epidemic models: changing patterns of persistence and dynamics. Theor. Popul. Biol. 60, 59-71. PDF
  26. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (2001). How viruses spread among computers and people. Science 292, 1316-1317.
  27. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 268, 985-993. PDF online appendix
  28. Lloyd, A.L. (2001). The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: limitations of studies of viral load data. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 268, 847-854. PDF
  29. Jeffery, K.J.M., Siddiqui, A.A., Bunce, M., Lloyd, A.L., Vine, A.M., Witkover, A.D., Izumo, S., Usuku, K., Welsh, K.I., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R.M. (2000). The influence of HLA class I alleles and heterozygosity on the outcome of human T cell lymphotropic virus type T infection. J. Immunol. 165, 7278-7284. PDF
  30. Jansen, V.A.A., & Lloyd, A.L. (2000). Local stability analysis of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch systems. J. Math. Biol. 41, 232-252. PDF
  31. Masel, J., Arnaout, R.A., O'Brien, T.R., Goedert, J.J., & Lloyd, A.L. (2000). Fluctuations in HIV-1 viral load are correlated to CD4(+) T- lymphocyte count during the natural course of infection. JAIDS 23, 375-379.
  32. Barchet, W., Oehen, S., Klenerman, P., Wodarz, D., Bocharov, G., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., Hengartner, H., Zinkernagel, R.M., & Ehl, S. (2000). Direct quantitation of rapid elimination of viral antigen-positive lymphocytes by antiviral CD8(+) T cells in vivo. Eur. J. Immunol. 30, 1356-1363. PDF
  33. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (1999) Synchronicity, chaos and population cycles: spatial coherence in an uncertain world. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 417-418. PDF
  34. Arnaout, R.A., Lloyd, A.L., O'Brien, T.R., Goedert, J.J., Leonard, J.M., & Nowak, M.A. (1999). A simple relationship between viral load and survival time in HIV-1 infection. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 11549-11553. PDF
  35. Haydon, D.T., & Lloyd, A.L. (1999). On the origins of the Lotka-Volterra Equations. Bull. Ecol. Soc. America 80, 205-206. PDF
  36. Jeffery, K.J.M., Usuku, K., Hall, S.E., Matsumoto, W., Taylor, G.P., Procter, J., Bunce, M., Ogg, G.S., Welsh, K.I., Weber, J.N., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., Nagai, M., Kodama, D., Izumo, S., Osame, M., & Bangham, C.R.M. (1999). HLA alleles determine human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) proviral load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 3848-3853. PDF
  37. Wodarz, D., Lloyd, A.L., Jansen, V.A.A., & Nowak, M.A. (1999). Dynamics of macrophage and T cell infection by HIV. J. Theor. Biol. 196, 101-113. PDF
  38. Gravenor, M.B., & Lloyd, A.L. (1998). Reply to: Models for the in-host dynamics of malaria revisited: errors in some basic models lead to large overestimates of growth rates. Parasitology 117, 409-410. PDF
  39. Chun, T.W., Stuyver, L., Mizell, S.B., Ehler, L.A., Mican, J.A.M., Baseler, M., Lloyd, A.L., Nowak, M.A., & Fauci, A.S. (1997). Presence of an inducible HIV-1 latent reservoir during highly active antiretroviral therapy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 13193-13197. PDF
  40. Lifson, J.D., Nowak, M.A., Goldstein, S., Rossio, J.L., Kinter, A., Vasquez, G., Wiltrout, T.A., Brown, C., Schneider, D., Wahl, L., Lloyd, A.L., Williams, J., Elkins, W.R., Fauci, A.S., & Hirsch, V.M. (1997). The extent of early viral replication is a critical determinant of the natural history of simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J. Virol. 71, 9508-9514. PDF
  41. Nowak, M.A., Lloyd, A.L., Vasquez, G.M., Wiltrout, T.A., Wahl, L.M., Bischofberger, N., Williams, J., Kinter, A., Fauci, A.S., Hirsch, V.M., & Lifson, J.D. (1997). Viral dynamics of primary viremia and antiretroviral therapy in simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J. Virol. 71, 7518-7525. PDF
  42. Lloyd, A.L., & May, R.M. (1996) Spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models. J. Theor. Biol. 179, 1-11. PDF
  43. Lloyd, A.L., & Lloyd, D. (1995) Chaos- its significance and detection in biology. Biol. Rhythm Res. 26, 233-252.
  44. Lloyd, A.L. (1995). Computing bouts of the prisoner's dilemma. Sci. Am. 272 (6), 110-115.
  45. Lloyd, A.L. (1995). The coupled logistic map- A simple model for the effects of spatial heterogeneity on population dynamics. J. Theor. Biol. 173, 217-230. PDF
  46. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (1994). Hypothesis- A controlled chaotic attractor constitutes the central oscillator of the circadian clock. Biochem. Soc. Trans. 22, S322.
  47. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd A.L. (1994). A controlled chaotic attractor could provide a tunable oscillator for circadian clocks. Biol. Rhythm Res. 25, 235-240.
  48. Lloyd, A.L. (1994). Chaos and forecasting. Trends Ecol. Evol. 9, 244-245.
  49. Lloyd, A.L., & Gravenor, M.B. (1994). Linear filters and nonlinear forecasting. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 256, 157-161. PDF
  50. Lloyd, D., & Lloyd, A.L. (1993). Hypothesis- a controlled chaotic attractor constitutes the central oscillator of the circadian clock. J. Interdiscip. Cycle Res. 24, 231-232.
  51. Mason, D.J., Lloyd, A.L. & Lloyd, D. (1993). An inexpensive infrared growth sensor array for detection of bacterial antibiotic susceptibility. FEMS Microbiol. Lett. 111, 251-254.
  52. Lloyd, A.L., & Lloyd, D. (1993). Hypothesis- the central oscillator of the circadian clock is a controlled chaotic attractor. Biosystems 29, 77-85.
  53. Lloyd, D., Lloyd, A.L., & Olsen, L.F. (1992) The cell-division cycle- a physiologically plausible dynamic model can exhibit chaotic solutions. Biosystems 27, 17-24.
  54. Lloyd, D., James, C.J., Lloyd, A.L., Yarlett, N., & Yarlett, N.C. (1987). The effects of oxygen on fermentation in Tritrichomonas fetus KV1 and its variant 1MR-100 with defective hydrogenosomes. J. Gen. Microbiol. 133, 1181-1186.

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